Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS64 KAMA 040802
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
302 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

- There is moderate to high chance for widespread heavy rainfall
  across the Panhandles Monday through Tuesday night, which may
  result in flooding and flash flooding as conditions are already
  wet from prior rainfall.

- Very low chance for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday to become
  strong to severe during the peak of the upcoming weather system.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

An Omega Block is setting up quite nicely with a mid to upper
level low entering the Ohio River Valley and another deepening
over central CA. The combined Panhandles are smack dab in the
middle under the ridge. Another day of afternoon highs near normal
in the 70s is expected for this afternoon. Later today the low
upstream over CA is progged to be positioning over AZ. With the FA
upstream the combined Panhandles will fall under southwest flow
aloft. Perturbations along with some Pacific moisture will begin
shower and thunderstorm activity over NM later today with some of
that activity potential making its way into the far western
combined Panhandles going into the early afternoon. It is not
until tomorrow morning when precip chances over take the entire
combined Panhandles.

Due to the set up of the Omega Block this closed low on its way is
progged to move over the area relatively slowly. Hence the
prolonged shot at rain maybe even heavy rain is expected through
Wed. There may be some breaks in the moderate to heavy rainfall
associated with some thunderstorms. When those breaks will be is
yet to be determined. Current thinking is quite a bit of activity
will be had going into sunrise tomorrow with a small break Mon
afternoon into early evening with activity picking up later in the
Mon night period going into Tue morning. Forecast soundings show
very tropical profiles, and this much moisture severe storms are
quite unlikely tomorrow into tomorrow night.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Medium range model guidance agree the closed low should keep on
churning as it progresses over the Panhandles Tue-Wed, drawing
ample Gulf moisture to the region in the process. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will persist, and we may even find ourselves
with a strong thunderstorm or two in the southern Panhandle early
in the day. There will be modest instability along with ample
shear available for some convection to perhaps get a little rowdy,
but severe weather is not expected at this time. Lift from the
low and constant H700 theta-e advection will prolong moderate to
heavy rain chances with occasional dry slots bringing breaks
throughout the day. Precip will decline somewhat Wed (30-60%
POPs), but wrap around moisture on the backside of the low will
maintain additional scattered showers. Same trend continues
Thursday as the low departs, with only 20-30% POPs.

By the time the system fully ejects to our east Thu-Fri, many
locations across the forecast area will have medium chances
(40-70%) to have received 2 inches or greater of rainfall. Any
areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain will need to be
monitored for flooding potential as we go through the event. Not
everyone is guaranteed a deluge this week, but the vast majority
of the Panhandles should see beneficial rain at some point.
Temperatures will be below average in the 50s and 60s most of the
week until we clear out closer to the weekend. Ensembles show the
low becoming cut-off to our east Friday onward, leaving us back in
a quieter pattern with more seasonal temperatures in the 70s.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through about 00Z Monday. After
that, conditions may potentially degrade with showers and
thunderstorms moving in from the west. KDHT will be the first to
drop to MVFR, potentially IFR. KGUY and KAMA may not be impacted
until after 06Z but before 12Z Monday.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  49  59  49 /   0  60  90  90
Beaver OK                  79  47  65  47 /   0  10  70  60
Boise City OK              75  44  57  44 /  10  60 100  80
Borger TX                  79  51  62  50 /   0  40  90  80
Boys Ranch TX              76  49  62  49 /  10  80 100  90
Canyon TX                  74  49  59  48 /  10  70  90  90
Clarendon TX               72  49  57  50 /   0  30  90  90
Dalhart TX                 74  45  58  44 /  10  80 100  80
Guymon OK                  78  47  60  46 /   0  30  90  70
Hereford TX                74  49  62  47 /  10  80  90  90
Lipscomb TX                76  49  63  50 /   0  10  60  70
Pampa TX                   73  49  60  49 /   0  30  90  90
Shamrock TX                73  48  60  50 /   0  10  70  90
Wellington TX              72  49  60  51 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36