Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

495
FXUS64 KAMA 070727
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
227 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Severe storms continue through the early morning hours across
  the northeastern combined Panhandles. Very large hail and
  damaging winds could occur with the strongest storms.

- There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm this evening
  which would have an outside chance to become strong to severe.

- Potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
  activity is favored Sunday afternoon and through the evening,
  with all hazards possible once again. The primary hazards look
  to be damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Shortwave trough currently moving through NE with a leading wave
producing ample lift across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
this morning. An outflow boundary has pushed almost to the I-40
corridor and two areas of severe convection are ongoing, one in
the Lubbock area and one in the northeastern combined Panhandles.
Low level moisture transport continues to surge into the
Panhandles on a modest 30kt low level jet as observed in the
latest KAMA VWP Hodographs. Latest CAM analysis soundings suggest
1500-2000 J/kg mainly elevated CAPE, but DCAPE values of around
1500 and effective shear of 50 to 60 knots has supported giant
hail (based on radar) and straight line winds up to 90mph
(measured at Miami) in the last hour. The tornado threat should be
low given the elevated nature of the storms behind a notable
outflow, but can`t be ruled out completely for the next few hours.
Storms continue to redevelop behind the outflow with cells near
Boise City, another one approaching Spearman, one near Miami, and
the main line near the OK state line. Additional development may
continue through at least 7 AM based on the latest CAM output,
which makes sense given the strong moisture transport along with
upper level support and outflow boundary. Flooding or flash
flooding could occur with development across the I-40 area.

Subsidence is expected to take over behind the wave starting
between 12z and 18z, and this should keep activity later today
minimal. That said, the next wave near UT may provide enough lift
late the afternoon into the evening for a few isolated cells to
develop off the high terrain of NM. These would have a chance to
move into the northwest Panhandles this evening, but H7 and even
H85 moisture looks much less impressive compared what`s going on
now. Yet if a storm did develop, it would have a low chance to
become severe given MLCAPE near 1500 and effective shear still
around 40-50 knots (long hodographs).

The next good setup for severe storms is gearing up on Sunday when
the upper flow starts to become northwesterly as a broad trough
digs across the northern plains and out over the upper Midwest
while ridging builds over the western CONUS. A cold front will be
approaching the area on Sunday but looks to stall in KS while the
H7 and H85 moisture transport picks up again over West Texas.
Ensembles continue to show very large MLCAPE values (REFS 50th
percentile near 3200 J/kg with 90th percentile pushing 4000 J/kg
across the entire combined Panhandles) with lengthy hodographs
sufficient for 40-50 knots of effective shear. These numbers could
support some extreme hail sizes with any discrete cells
transitioning to damaging winds as storms congeal in response to
an upper level disturbance. The tornado threat should be on the
low side given how weak the 0-1km winds are in the current model
output, but a low level jet in the evening will support better low
level shear mainly after 8PM, but still not super favorable for
tornadoes. It looks like the timing will be mainly afternoon and
evening for this event based on the timing of the upper level wave
and how quick the area will destabilize. Flash flooding will
remain a concern given high PWATs and somehwat slow storm motion
of around 15 to 20 knots.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The upper level pattern will change going into next week with a
ridge moving further inland in the northern stream while at least
weak troughing develops in the southern stream. This leads to a
pattern reminiscent of a rex block, but more progressive.
Overall, the upper flow won`t be as strong as it has been
recently, but we should keep enough moisture around for at least
isolated to scattered storm potential on most afternoons as
convective temperatures are reached. Temperatures should hang out
below normal early in the week to near normal by the end of the
week.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Thunderstorms will continue to be a threat for KGUY over the next
few hours, and while chances are lower for KAMA and KDHT, TSRA
can`t be ruled out later this morning. Most of the thunder
activity should be exiting the area between 08z and 12z with
perhaps a few lingering showers beyond 12z. Otherwise, some MVFR
or transient IFR cigs are possible through sunrise, but overall
confidence in how widespread low clouds will be is low. VFR should
become dominant by 15z or so. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will
be generally around 10 knots or less.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                84  62  88  59 /  10  10  50  60
Beaver OK                  83  59  84  57 /   0   0  50  40
Boise City OK              83  57  85  55 /  10  10  30  40
Borger TX                  86  64  90  61 /  20  10  60  60
Boys Ranch TX              85  61  90  59 /   0  10  50  60
Canyon TX                  85  61  90  58 /   0  10  50  70
Clarendon TX               83  64  89  61 /  10  10  60  80
Dalhart TX                 82  57  87  55 /   0  10  40  50
Guymon OK                  83  59  86  57 /   0  10  50  40
Hereford TX                86  61  91  59 /   0  10  40  60
Lipscomb TX                84  61  85  59 /  20  10  50  50
Pampa TX                   82  63  86  60 /  30  10  60  60
Shamrock TX                85  63  89  61 /  20  10  50  70
Wellington TX              85  65  91  62 /  10  10  50  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005-010.

OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07